,hl=en,siteUrl='http://0ldfox.blogspot.com/',authuser=0,security_token="v_SeT2Tv8vVdKRCcG9CCW-ZdIfQ:1429878696275"/> Old Fox KM Journal

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Not Censorship But Selection


linkBy Lester Asheim

THERE IS AN AMUSING WORD GAME with which many of you are familiar in which the object is to trace an action, a point of view, or a characteristic through the gamut of its connotations from the most to the least acceptable. The point of the game is that the most admirable aspect of the characteristic is always assigned by the speaker to himself, whereas the least attractive aspect is taken to be that which characterizes somebody else. Thus, "I know the value of a dollar; he is miserly." To many, the title of my paper would seem to reflect a similar tendency. I select but he censors. . . .

Texas--gotta love it!!


The owner of a golf course in Lufkin was confused about paying an
invoice, so he decided to ask his secretary for some mathematical
help. He called her into his office and said, "You graduated from
The University of Texas and I need some help. If I were to give
you $20,000, minus 14%, how much would you take off?" The
secretary thought a moment, then replied, "Everything but my
earrings." You gotta love those East Texas women.

***************************************
A group of Tyler friends went deer hunting and paired off in twos
for the day. That night, one of the hunters returned alone,
staggering under the weight of an eight-point buck. "Where's
Henry?" the others asked. "Henry had a stroke of some kind. He's a
couple of miles back up the trail," the successful hunter
replied. "You left Henry laying out there and carried the deer
back?" they inquired. "A tough call," nodded the hunter. "But I
figured no one is going to steal Henry!"

*************************************
A senior at Texas A&M was overheard saying. "When the end of the
world comes, I hope to be in East Texas. When asked why, he
replied he'd rather be in East Texas because everything happens in
East Texas 20 years later than in the rest of the civilized world.

************************************
The young man from Texas A&M came running into the store and said
to his buddy, "Bubba, somebody just stole your pickup truck from
the parking lot!"
Bubba replied, "Did you see who it was?"
The young man answered, "I couldn't tell, but I got the license
number."

***********************************
NEWS FLASH! -Brian/College Station's worst disaster occurred when
a small two-seater Cessna 150 plane, piloted by two Texas A&M
students, crashed into a cemetery earlier today. Search and Rescue
workers have recovered 300 bodies so far and expect the number to
climb as digging continues into the evening. The pilot and copilot
survived! and are helping in the recovery efforts.

*************************************

A Texas State trooper pulled over a pickup on I-20.
The trooper asked, "Got any ID?"
The driver replied, "Bout whut?"

*************************************
A man in Tyler had a flat tire, pulled off on the side of the
road, and proceeded to put a bouquet of flowers in front of the
car and one behind it. Then he got back in the car to wait. A
passerby studied the scene as he drove by and was so curious he
turned around and went back. He asked the fellow what the problem
was. The man replied, "I have a flat tire." The passerby
asked, "But what's with the flowers?" The man responded, "When you
break down they tell you to put flares in the front and flares in
the back! I never did understand it either."

Privacy, schmivacy!


link


August 9, 2006
A Face Is Exposed for AOL Searcher No. 4417749
By MICHAEL BARBARO and TOM ZELLER Jr.
Buried in a list of 20 million Web search queries collected by AOL and recently released on the Internet is user No. 4417749. The number was assigned by the company to protect the searcher’s anonymity, but it was not much of a shield.

No. 4417749 conducted hundreds of searches over a three-month period on topics ranging from “numb fingers” to “60 single men” to “dog that urinates on everything.”

And search by search, click by click, the identity of AOL user No. 4417749 became easier to discern. There are queries for “landscapers in Lilburn, Ga,” several people with the last name Arnold and “homes sold in shadow lake subdivision gwinnett county georgia.”

It did not take much investigating to follow that data trail to Thelma Arnold, a 62-year-old widow who lives in Lilburn, Ga., frequently researches her friends’ medical ailments and loves her three dogs. “Those are my searches,” she said, after a reporter read part of the list to her.

AOL removed the search data from its site over the weekend and apologized for its release, saying it was an unauthorized move by a team that had hoped it would benefit academic researchers.

But the detailed records of searches conducted by Ms. Arnold and 657,000 other Americans, copies of which continue to circulate online, underscore how much people unintentionally reveal about themselves when they use search engines — and how risky it can be for companies like AOL, Google and Yahoo to compile such data.

Those risks have long pitted privacy advocates against online marketers and other Internet companies seeking to profit from the Internet’s unique ability to track the comings and goings of users, allowing for more focused and therefore more lucrative advertising.

But the unintended consequences of all that data being compiled, stored and cross-linked are what Marc Rotenberg, the executive director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a privacy rights group in Washington, called “a ticking privacy time bomb.”

Mr. Rotenberg pointed to Google’s own joust earlier this year with the Justice Department over a subpoena for some of its search data. The company successfully fended off the agency’s demand in court, but several other search companies, including AOL, complied. The Justice Department sought the information to help it defend a challenge to a law that is meant to shield children from sexually explicit material.

“We supported Google at the time,” Mr. Rotenberg said, “but we also said that it was a mistake for Google to be saving so much information because it creates a risk.”

Ms. Arnold, who agreed to discuss her searches with a reporter, said she was shocked to hear that AOL had saved and published three months’ worth of them. “My goodness, it’s my whole personal life,” she said. “I had no idea somebody was looking over my shoulder.”

In the privacy of her four-bedroom home, Ms. Arnold searched for the answers to scores of life’s questions, big and small. How could she buy “school supplies for Iraq children”? What is the “safest place to live”? What is “the best season to visit Italy”?

Her searches are a catalog of intentions, curiosity, anxieties and quotidian questions. There was the day in May, for example, when she typed in “termites,” then “tea for good health” then “mature living,” all within a few hours.

Her queries mirror millions of those captured in AOL’s database, which reveal the concerns of expectant mothers, cancer patients, college students and music lovers. User No. 2178 searches for “foods to avoid when breast feeding.” No. 3482401 seeks guidance on “calorie counting.” No. 3483689 searches for the songs “Time After Time” and “Wind Beneath My Wings.”

At times, the searches appear to betray intimate emotions and personal dilemmas. No. 3505202 asks about “depression and medical leave.” No. 7268042 types “fear that spouse contemplating cheating.”

There are also many thousands of sexual queries, along with searches about “child porno” and “how to kill oneself by natural gas” that raise questions about what legal authorities can and should do with such information.

But while these searches can tell the casual observer — or the sociologist or the marketer — much about the person who typed them, they can also prove highly misleading.

At first glace, it might appear that Ms. Arnold fears she is suffering from a wide range of ailments. Her search history includes “hand tremors,” “nicotine effects on the body,” “dry mouth” and “bipolar.” But in an interview, Ms. Arnold said she routinely researched medical conditions for her friends to assuage their anxieties. Explaining her queries about nicotine, for example, she said: “I have a friend who needs to quit smoking and I want to help her do it.”

Asked about Ms. Arnold, an AOL spokesman, Andrew Weinstein, reiterated the company’s position that the data release was a mistake. “We apologize specifically to her,” he said. “There is not a whole lot we can do.”

Mr. Weinstein said he knew of no other cases thus far where users had been identified as a result of the search data, but he was not surprised. “We acknowledged that there was information that could potentially lead to people being identified, which is why we were so angry.”

AOL keeps a record of each user’s search queries for one month, Mr. Weinstein said. This allows users to refer back to previous searches and is also used by AOL to improve the quality of its search technology. The three-month data that was released came from a special system meant for AOL’s internal researchers that does not record the users’ AOL screen names, he said.

Several bloggers claimed yesterday to have identified other AOL users by examining data, while others hunted for particularly entertaining or shocking search histories. Some programmers made this easier by setting up Web sites that let people search the database of searches.

John Battelle, the author of the 2005 book “The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Rules of Business and Transformed Our Culture,” said AOL’s misstep, while unfortunate, could have a silver lining if people began to understand just what was at stake. In his book, he says search engines are mining the priceless “database of intentions” formed by the world’s search requests.

“It’s only by these kinds of screw-ups and unintended behind-the-curtain views that we can push this dialogue along,” Mr. Battelle said. “As unhappy as I am to see this data on people leaked, I’m heartened that we will have this conversation as a culture, which is long overdue.”

Ms. Arnold says she loves online research, but the disclosure of her searches has left her disillusioned. In response, she plans to drop her AOL subscription. “We all have a right to privacy,” she said. “Nobody should have found this all out.”

Saul Hansell contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

US celebrities 'sue in Britain for better chance of winning'


liable for libel

By Caroline Davies

(Filed: 09/08/2006)

American celebrities are choosing to sue newspapers for libel in British courts because they have a better chance of winning here than in the US, claim leading lawyers.

Legal experts say libel laws on this side of the Atlantic are much more favourable to claimants as malice does not have to be proved and there is no constitutional right to freedom of expression.

The actress Kate Hudson and pop singer Britney Spears are among the stars who have successfully pursued claims in the United Kingdom, helping to double the number of defamation cases heard in Britain last year . . .

Mr Benaim explained: "It is easier for US-based celebrities to sue for defamation in the English courts than in their own country as our libel laws are much more favourable to claimants. For instance, in the UK you do not have to prove malice as you do in America.

"Also, the right to freedom of expression is enshrined in the US constitution under the First Amendment, whereas here the right is more evenly balanced with the individual's right to their reputation. . . .

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Housing slowdown leads to boom in mini-storage units


San Francisco Business Times

2:36 PM PDT Tuesday
by Mark Calvey

Rising interest rates and concerns over the direction of housing prices are prompting more potential home buyers to remain on the sidelines, spurring increased demand not only for apartments but for mini-storage units as well, said Hans Lapping, an attorney with Miller, Starr & Regalia in Walnut Creek.

Rising demand for storage space, in part from people losing their homes to foreclosure, is a key factor in the proliferation of mini-storage operations, Lapping told investors attending a seminar Tuesday on the basics of real estate investing . . .

Avian Flu Policy


link
Pandemic flu like symptoms.

Phishing and Pharming


link
schemes

Monday, August 07, 2006

Huh? What 'Reporter's Privilege'?


Rules of Evidence
U.S. Wins Access to Reporter Phone Records

. . . the government contended that calls from the reporters tipped off the charities to impending raids and asset seizures, the investigation appears . . .

. . . wrote for majority, in an opinion joined by Judge Amalya Lyle Kearse. “We see no danger to a free press in so holding. Learning of imminent law enforcement asset freezes/searches and informing targets of them is not an activity essential, or even common, to journalism.”


We've said this before. The only privileges in the Rules of Evidence belong to the clients of professional counsellors or advisers. The privilege is the client's to waive or defend. In Journalism, who is the client?

"Press Freedom" protects Matt Drudge as much as it protects Dan Rather.

Weekly GPO CONGRESSIONAL SALES PUBLICATIONS



LLSDC GPO CONGRESSIONAL SALES PUBLICATIONS: JULY
31-AUGUST 4, 2006

The following thirty-four publications were announced
by the GPO Congressional Sales Program (202-512-1809)
July 31-August 4, 2006, and transcribed by the Law
Librarians' Society of Washington, D.C. Legislative
Research SIS Volunteers ....
:

HOUSE ENERGY AND COMMERCE Hearing: Public Reporting of
Hospital-Acquired Infection Rates: Empowering
Consumers, Saving Lives. March 29, 2006. Serial No.
109-85. GPO Stock No. 552-070-34505-1. $35.00. GPO
Access
http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/house/house05ch109.html

HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Hearing: Democracy in
Venezuela. Serial No. 109-140. GPO Stock No.
552-070-34502-7. $16.00. PDF
http://www.house.gov/international_relations/109/24600.pdf
via Committee only

HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Hearing: The Illicit
Drug Transit Zone in Central America. November 9,
2005. Serial No. 109-139. GPO Stock No.
552-070-34494-2. $8.00. PDF
http://www.house.gov/international_relations/109/24517.pdf
via Committee site

HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Hearing: Nigeria's
Struggle With Corruption. May 18, 2006. Serial No.
109-172. GPO Stock No. 552-070-34495-1. $9.00. PDF
http://wwwc.house.gov/international_relations/109/27648.PDF
via Committee site

HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Hearing: United States
Policy Toward the Palestinians in the Aftermath of
Parliamentary Elections. March 2, 2006. Serial No. 109
-166. GPO Stock No. 552-070-34477-2. $6.50. PDF
http://www.house.gov/international_relations/109/26332.pdf
via Committee site only

HOUSE SCIENCE Hearing: Health Care Information
Technology: What are the Opportunities for and
Barriers to Inter-Operable Health Information
Technology Systems? February 23, 2005. Serial No.
109-37. GPO Stock No. 552-070-34486-1. $22.00. GPO
Access
http://www.gpo.gov/congress/house/house14ch109.html

Worth Knowing


link

Subject: FYI: Treaties in Force & U.S. Treaties no longer in print
Cross posted to the listservs GovDoc-L and Law-Lib

A State Department staff member called to inform me that the publication Treaties in Force and the publication Treaties and Other International Agreements Series will no longer be published in print but will only be available on the State Department's website at http://www.state.gov/s/l/treaty/. No word on whether the site will be maintained in perpetuity.

Rick McKinney
Assistant Law Librarian
Federal Reserve Board Law Library

Sunday, August 06, 2006

The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America


State of Emergency:

by Pat Buchanan

Civilizations die by suicide, not murder, says Patrick Buchanan, and liberalism is the ideology of Western suicide. Its ideas, pursued to their logical end, will prove fatal. And none of those ideas is as certain to bring our civilization to an unhappy end as the proposition that America's borders must be open to any and all comers, legal and illegal. In State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America, Buchanan explains why the very life of our nation is at stake in the immigration debate. If immigration and border controls aren't reintroduced, it will be the end of America as we know it -- and soon.

Buchanan explains why the massive influx of illegal immigrants into America is nothing less than an invasion -- and yet the Bush White House and GOP-controlled Congress appear disinclined to do anything about it. He details how our current policy of "open borders" and nearly unrestricted immigration have brought a stream of criminals and thugs into our nation -- for the benefit only of an entrenched political establishment that couldn't care less about the good of the American people. He explodes myth after myth about illegal immigration -- including President Bush's notorious statement that illegal aliens "do jobs Americans won't do" and the idea that foreigners somehow have a natural right to come to America.

Nor will all this be an easy problem to solve. Buchanan demonstrates that any presidential candidate who speaks out against the Hispanic onslaught in the American Southwest will now lose the electoral votes of California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Soon, electoral realities will make it impossible for any serious candidate to speak out against unrestrained immigration. Yet, he points out, if it wanted to, the U.S. Government could secure the Mexican border within weeks -- and details the political reasons why this won't happen, despite the fact that immigration control measures have consistently won large margins of support from American voters.

America, says Buchanan, could soon be facing its last chance to stave off national suicide. In State of Emergency, he provides a comprehensive primer for all politicians, activists, and concerned citizens who want to stop the flood of immigration before it's too late.

How illegal immigration threatens every American:

Fact: our illegal population today is greater than the total number of Irish, Jewish, and British immigrants who ever came to the U.S.

Why the reigning Republicans ignore the law and do little or nothing to stop illegal immigration

How mass immigration inevitably tilts the center of gravity of American politics to the Left

How the numbers of Americans of European descent are rapidly decreasing -- and the political and social implications

Eurabia on the rise: the devastating consequences of unrestricted immigration in Europe

How Los Angeles today provides a glimpse of what all of America will be like in 2050

Why Mexico's President Fox has done nothing to help secure the U.S.-Mexican border -- and has actually abetted the invasion of the U.S. by millions of illegal aliens

Fact: not only are arguments about the economic benefits provided by illegal aliens false, but illegal immigration also constitutes a massive drain on our economy

The Mexican War is not over: its deep impact on contemporary immigration politics

Why it is difficult, if not impossible, for cities to get control of the growing crime menace of immigrants and illegal aliens

Latin elites that are doing everything they can to prevent the assimilation of Mexican immigrants into American culture

Bush's guest worker plan: how it provoked a surge to the border

How, as Republicans dither, some Democrats are beginning to see the potency among voters of the illegal immigration issue

Why so many children of Asian-American and Hispanic immigrants are assimilating into a deadly subculture of gangs and crime

How we must recapture control of immigration policy from politicians paralyzed by fear of ethnic lobbies and cultural contributors, or immobilized by ideology

Why ideology and democracy are not enough to save America -- and what we need most now to trump the call of ethnicity

Six critical steps that must be taken now to secure America's borders and preserve he republic

McM


link
Stock Market
The stock market continued to rise this week, without a lot of help from technical indicators. But we always say that price action is the best technical indicator, so it must be respected. $SPX managed to close above resistance at 1280. There is still some resistance, at the 1290 May top. If it should exceed that, the chart formation would be a rather bullish one, and we would then look for higher prices. However, since the entire 1280-1290 range must be considered a resistance area, we are not looking to get long at this time.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. It is unusual to see them continue to rise as the market itself is rising. When this happens (both the put-call ratio and the underlying price rising in
conjunction), it usually means that the put-call ratio signal is unreliable that there is considerable hedging activity which is distorting the put- call data. In this case, however, we are talking about ALL stock options that trade, so there would have to be a LOT of hedging activity to distort the ratio. Perhaps there is, because put volume has been heavy for several weeks even though the market has generally been rising.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) is positive. Actually, it follows the daily moves with extreme daily readings of its own, because of rather uniform institutional activity.

Finally, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have remained rather subdued for the most part. Their continued downtrend over the last few weeks means that they remain on buy signals.

So, in summary, we see buy signals from $VIX and breadth, but the put-call ratios are negative (although there may be hedging distortion there). Finally, $SPX itself is modestly bullish, and a close above 1290 would be a much more bullish sign.

Potential news items may be complicating things: 1) the unemployment report on Friday is sure to appear bullish to some traders and bearish to others (it's the classic case of 'bad news is good news' if
job growth is sluggish), and 2) many traders are become more and more certain that the Fed will not raise rates at next week's FOMC meeting. If they are right, this might be a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.' That is, the market might actually decline right after that meeting if a 'pause' is announced. Of course, if rates are raised, that would be even more negative. Consequently, even if $SPX breaks out over 1290, some amount of caution should be used.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Earnings Play


Jerri's system:
1. Quick Straddle Instructions

2. How to...

3. EggsSample

The Knowledge-Model Driven Enterprise


link
Requirements
. . . We argue that a centralized metadata repository offers the best way to bridge this information gap and to provide a consistent, reusable model of the external perspective on an enterprise. What are the principal technical requirements for the repository? . . .

Another potential stumbling block is the challenge of gaining consensus on very basic issues. At our first customer, for example, we were surprised to learn that there was no single, clear answer to the question “What is the structure of the company’s product line?” Project managers should factor in the time and effort required to put issues like these to rest, and should ensure that the right resources (in terms of facilitators, subject matter experts, and executives) are available to guide these efforts.

Reuse is fundamental to obtaining return on metadata projects. After all, a robust metadata model is inherently complex when compared with classic relational database techniques. In many cases, any single element of the metadata model could be represented more simply in standard normalized tables. It is only when models can be reused and integrated with other elements of the data model that the greater complexity of the metadata approach is warranted. Plans to acquire metadata should be made with a view towards the support of multiple applications that will use it.

From a modeling perspective, the basic concepts of the object-oriented paradigm have become familiar and instinctive to most end users. The use of taxonomies to organize and classify objects has also become intuitive, probably through the standard computer file-system interface. We have found that modeling techniques based on these elements are easily learned by non-technical staff. However, more advanced concepts from the world of knowledge representation are not comprehensible to the non-specialist. If non-experts are expected to maintain the metadata model over time, their skill levels and availability must be considered in choosing modeling tools. . . .

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Why we must give up flying


link
(Filed: 29/07/2006)Page 1 of 4
The Bishop of London argued this week that we have a moral obligation to be environmentally friendly and that jetting away for a holiday is a sin. The geographer and journalist Nicholas Crane, who chose nearly 10 years ago never to fly again, explains his decision.


A man of courage has spoken. The Bishop of London, the Rt Rev Richard Chartres, has categorised flying as "a symptom of sin". The pressure on non-essential flying has been building for months. It just needed a public figure to take a stand against it.
. . .

Monday, July 31, 2006

Postage



post card usa .24
post card overseas .75
letter usa .39
letter overseas .84

Paris beach ban rules thongs to be beyond the pale


If there are any young lovelies out there who would like to sunbathe, this blogger will happily cover the 38 euro fine!

link

By Colin Randall in Paris

(Filed: 31/07/2006)

A threat to impose spot fines on women who sunbathe topless or in thongs on Paris Plage, a summer beach on the banks of the Seine, has left the city's mayor struggling to maintain his carefully nurtured image as a modern civic chief.

The penalty for going nude, topless or in a thong is 38 euros (£26). No fines have yet been imposed

In a country where going topless on real beaches is almost de rigueur, incredulity has greeted news that city hall officials and police have been moving among sunbathers, warning them of the ban on "indecent" dress.

What is especially embarrassing for Bertrand Delanoë, Paris's openly homosexual mayor, is that Paris Plage, now in its fifth year, is intended to reproduce the ambience of a Mediterranean beach.

"Sand, sunbeds, parasols," sighed the tabloid daily Le Parisien. "On the beach along the Seine, Bertrand Delanoë has deployed the full panoply of the perfect seaside postcard.

"But beware, it is a beach only in name and those who want sun-bronzed bottoms are unwelcome."

The major proudly describes Paris Plage as an attraction not only for tourists but for Parisians too poor to join the summer exodus to the coast.

The riverside highway is closed to traffic and covered by 2,000 tons of fine sand. The beach stretches for more than two miles and is dotted with palm trees and cafes.

But the order forbidding the exposure of flesh declares: "Behaviour must conform to good morals, tranquillity, safety and public order."

The penalty for going nude, topless or in a thong is 38 euros (£26). No fines have yet been imposed but the beach does not close until Aug 20.

City officials insist that the rule dates from Paris Plage's origins in 2002.

But one assistant mayor, Pascal Cherki, was ridiculed by Le Parisien for suggesting that inappropriate clothing worn so close to a river "could provoke dangerous temptations and behaviour".

Mr Delanoë was already under fire for launching an operation to remove tramps' tents, ostensibly for health reasons but widely seen as an attempt to sweep away signs of poverty and squalor from the chic riverside.

The Mouths of Babes


link
Mother dearest

We've all had moments of mortification caused by our mothers. But what if your mother is one of the most famous women in the world - with a tendency to cavort naked with a riding crop?

It's no surprise to hear that Madonna's nine-year-old daughter, Lourdes, was recently appalled by her mother's day job. "After seeing my video, Hung Up, she remarked: 'Yuk, that's disgusting. Why are you behaving like that?' " says the Queen Mummy of Pop. "She's even asked me if I am gay. She'd seen me kiss Britney Spears [at the MTV awards] and I tried to explain, saying: 'No darling, I kissed her to give her my energy'."

But Lourdes's perceptive reaction showed a maturity beyond her years: "Don't make me laugh," she scoffed.

Five Feet Under


Now you can't cuddle a conger

By Richard Alleyne

(Filed: 29/07/2006)

A charity game in which people try to knock each other over with a 5ft conger eel has been banned after animal rights activists complained that it was "disrespectful" to the dead fish.

Conger cuddling has been staged annually for more than 30 years at the harbour in Lyme Regis, Dorset, as a fund-raising event for the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

Teams stand on 6in high wooden blocks and others take it in turns to swing a 25lb eel at them. The team with the most people left standing at the end wins.

However, animal activists threatened to film the event and use the footage to start a national campaign against it.

Rob Michael, the chairman of the Lyme Lifeboat Guild, said: "We have been advised by the RNLI headquarters at Poole to abandon the conger cuddling event following a local complaint from animal rights activists.

"The RNLI is not prepared to be involved in an event that may be seen by some to be a barbaric throwback due to its use of a dead animal."

A rubber buoy may be now used instead of an eel.

Ken Whetlor, the mayor of Lyme Regis, said: "The writer of that letter is a gutless troublemaker with nothing better to do than stop people enjoying an innocent event that helps to raise money to save lives. I cannot see how using a dead conger eel landed by a local fisherman is unethical."

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Foreign Exchange


You know, as ANTONIS A. DEMOS and CHARLES A. E. GOODHART always like to say:
There is an empirical relationship between volatility, average spread, and number of quotations in the foreign exchange spot market. The estimation procedure involves two steps. In the Þrst one the optimal functional form between these variables is determined through a maximization procedure of the unrestricted VAR, involving the BoxÐCox transformation. The second step uses the two-stage least squares method to estimate the transformed variables in a simultaneous equation system framework. The results indicate that the number of quotations successfully approximates activity in the spot market. Furthermore, the number of quotations and temporal dummies reduce signiÞcantly the conditional heteroskedasticity e¤ect. We also discuss information aspects of the model as well as its implications for Þnancial informational theories. Inter- and intra-day patterns of the three variables are also revealed.


It's true. Who knew?

Friday, July 28, 2006

Selling Keywords for Ads an Infringement


link to the opinion
Oh boy! This has got to be trouble!

Volume 72 Number 1779
Friday, July 28, 2006 Page 348
ISSN 1522-4325
News

Trademarks/Infringement
Search Engine's Sale of Trademark Terms
As Keywords Ruled Commercial Use of Mark


Selling paid-search listings triggered to appear whenever a user queries the plaintiff's trademark is a "use in commerce" of the mark that may be infringing, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey ruled July 17 (800-JR Cigar Inc. v. GoTo.com Inc., D.N.J., No. 00-3179, 7/17/06).
The court adopted the reasoning of Government Employees Insurance Co. v. Google Inc., 330 F. Supp. 2d 700, 73 USPQ2d 1212 (E.D. Va. 2004) (69 PTCJ 186, 12/24/04 ), for the proposition that keyword-based advertising amounts to a use in commerce of a trademark where the mark serves as an invisible trigger to display a competitor's ad. . . .


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Sunday, July 23, 2006

A STOCK MARKET CRASH IN 2006?


Four Investment Safe Havens for the Ailing Market
by Dr. Mark Skousen
Chairman, Investment U
June 15, 2006
Originally published June 7, 2006

link
Watch out below! We could well be headed for a Ben Bernanke crash...

This coming crash could hit all sorts of financial assets - stocks, gold, commodities and real estate. In fact, it's already happening... And my recommendation last month to move to "cash" (earning 5%) and prime rate funds (8%) has proven good advice.

The summer of 2006 is eerily similar to 1987, Alan Greenspan's first year as Fed chairman. What happened in October 1987? The stock market fell 23% in a single day. I remember it well, October 19, 1987, my 40th birthday. Fortunately, I warned investors six weeks before to "sell everything," but few followed my advice.

The stock market collapsed in 1987 because the new chairman talked tough about inflation and raised interest rates. The Treasury secretary also said he supported a weaker dollar. It was not what the markets wanted to hear.

Once again, a new chairman has taken over, and on Monday, he gave a speech warning that his new Fed policy-makers would not tolerate current inflationary pressures. "We will be vigilant," he said. . . .

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Subject: RESULTS - Newspaper advertisements?



Some recommended sources are:
NewsStand (very cool, and quite affordable)
https://www.newsstand.com/

Library PressDisplay (NewspaperDirect) via ProQuest


Google Image Search
(example result)

I was able to find the Friday-Sunday issues of 2005 of one newspaper I'm looking for in NewsStand, which is sure better than nothing. And $2.75 is a small price to save my eyes from the microfilm reader!

Thanks again to everyone who responded!
Emily
Emily G. Cunningham
Research Specialist

Friday, July 14, 2006

The Option Strategist Weekly Updater



July 14, 2006

To receive the complete commentary plus reccomendations visit here:
http://www.optionstrategist.com/offers/strategist.htm

Stock Market
The bulls had every opportunity to move the market higher over the past couple of weeks, but they were unable to do so. Even before today's global problems surfaced, the bulls were woefully lacking in ability to counteract the bearish trends. As a result, $SPX slipped back below support (1255) and NASDAQ made new lows. It now appears that the bears are in charge again, and it would take a whole new setup of buy signals to generate another rally. Perhaps $SPX will find support near 1240 again, as it did in the second half of June, but it's more likely that it will try to retest the June lows near 1220. We had expected such a retest to take place, although we thought it might be later this year. When a retest takes place, we look for divergences: are the technical indicators in better or worse shape than the first time the averages visited this level? That will be important, and it's something that we'll definitely be keeping an eye on. For example, from Figures 2 & 3, we can see where the put-call ratios were when $SPX bottomed out in June. Will they be higher if $SPX trades down there again? If they are, that's bearish, but if they're lower, that would be a bullish divergence.

Speaking of the equity-only put-call ratios, they have been on buy signals for 2-3 weeks, but they were mostly alone in that stance and hence nothing much ever got going on the upside. They may roll over and start moving higher again. If that happens, they would revert to sell signals. It's possible.

Market breadth has been poor all along, and nothing has occurred to change that. Breadth indicators are bearish at the current time.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) had been taking a rather benign view of this decline when it first started about a week ago. However, they are now moving sharply higher, which is bearish while it's ongoing. Eventually another spike peak in $VIX would be bullish, but it's too early to call for that yet.

In summary, $SPX is going to try to find support at 1240 and then 1220. If both give way, this could get very nasty. In the meantime, we will take a somewhat bearish outlook unless new buy signals set up something that doesn't necessarily happen overnight.

.

Saturday, July 01, 2006

The Option Strategist Weekly Updater


June 30, 2006

To receive the complete commentary plus reccomendations visit here:

Note: Use the following link to view this week's charts:

We have been waiting for the market to break out over resistance -- to show that price action could be as bullish as some of the technical indicators were becoming. That has now occurred, in the wake of the Fed's announcement. I'm not completely in agreement with the super- bullish interpretation of the Fed statement (and I think some of the buying was due to end-of-quarter window dressing), but the reasons don't really matter. An upside breakout has occurred and thus we expect the major indices to trade higher at least for the short term.

$SPX had struggled with the 1260 area. Two rallies were turned back there, and the 200-day moving average (one which is often followed by institutional traders) had been holding back progress as well. In addition, the declining 20-day moving average was overhanging the averages as well. Today's rally blew through all of those, turning the technical picture bullish -- at least as long as it doesn't slip back below 1255, say.

The equity-only put-call ratios had already turned bullish (Figures 2 and 3) and were just waiting for confirmation from price action and the other technical indicators -- confirmation which is now verified.

Market breadth has been poor all year, and it was deeply oversold for most of the past month. With today's action, both breadth oscillators have given buy signals. A truly long-lasting rally would be led by
extremely oversold breadth readings in the coming days and weeks. Failure to achieve that may give us some indication of just how strong and long-lasting this rally can be.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) plunged today. That is a bit strange, because a new era of higher volatility has almost certainly been issued in. Even if the Fed has temporarily stopped raising rates, the market is going to live in fear that they might start again. That, coupled with the aftermath of a very nasty decline in April and May is certainly going to keep volatility high, in our opinion. Yes, we understand that $VIX dropped because put sellers were hammering $SPX and $OEX puts with abandon today, but that doesn't necessarily mean the market won't be volatile.

This short-term breakout should carry the averages up to at least the early June highs -- about 1290 on $SPX. The jury is still out on what happens after that. It is possible that an intermediate-term rally will take place, but we are not jumping on that bandwagon yet. The June lows are eventually going to be retested, we're sure, even if it takes several months to do so. This could develop into the kind of bottom we saw in August-October 1998 or July-October 2002. But, for now, enjoy the rally while it lasts.


To receive the complete commentary plus reccomendations visit here:

Forex references



post 6/30/2006 7:37:07 PM

Here are some resources on FOREX for those who might be interested. The download links are located at the bottom.
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1/ Introduction to Forex

1st Forex Trading Academy - Introduction to Forex
Forex - Online Manual for Successful Trading
Forex - Time Zone Chart
Introduction to Forex Trading with TradeStation
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Study Book for Successful Foreign Exchange Dealing
The Forex Market Phenomena
Trading for a Living in the Forex Market

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Forex Trading - Avoiding Mistakes
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Currency Strategy - A Practitioner's Guide To Currency Investing, Hedging & Forecasting
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Day Trading the Forex Market
Forex - Trade Book
Forex 1-2-3 Method
Forex Report - Predicting Price Action
Forex Sailing
Forex Scalping
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Forex Systems Research - Practical Fibonacci Methods For Forex Trading 2005
Forex Trading - Power Trading Course (2003)
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Make the Trend Your Friend in Forex
One More Zero - How to Trade the Forex like a Pro in One Hour

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Introduction to Forex

Forex Trading Course

Forex Trading System

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

OneOption Blog


blog

Type
OneOption has designed a search engine that focuses on high probability trading set-ups that typically last from one day to one month. The search engine finds and lists the stocks. The results include and extensive tutorial that describes the Set-up and it includes detailed entry and exit parameters. Prior to selecting a Set-up, users select the Types of trades they are interested in seeing. The choices are described below.

Sunday, June 25, 2006

forex


trade system

tradethenews.pdf

Kylie Minogue: No looking back


Hamilton Spectator
Kylie Minogue says she lives in the moment and revels in spontaneity.

The tiny, perfect pop princess is back at work after cancer, but sees no 'miracle cures'
By Liz Hoggard
The Independent(Jun 24, 2006)

When Kylie Minogue sent thanks to an awards ceremony a couple of weeks ago after being voted woman of the year by Glamour magazine, she noted wryly the "last year has been my least public."

But arguably it's been the most important year of her life. Diagnosed with breast cancer in May 2005, the 38-year-old singer immediately issued a statement and cancelled her Showgirl tour. (She has since announced she's resuming it in November).

We've had dance Kylie, electro-clash Kylie, retro Kylie, but the way she's handled her illness and treatment has been her most remarkable incarnation yet. Not only has she showed real dignity, she has refused to be turned into a triumph-over-tragedy story.

After a partial mastectomy, chemo-therapy and radiotherapy, the prognosis looks good. She is recording a new album and is tipped to headline next year's Glastonbury Festival, but there is no talk of miracle cures; rather she insists she is taking "baby steps."

Nor is she about to rush up the aisle with her boyfriend of four years, film star Oliver Martinez. "I don't have that sense of urgency," she told an Australian newspaper in her first interview since her illness. As for the gruesome fascination with her fertility, she says, "Yes, I feel broody -- it's only natural. If and when it happens, then great."

As a pop star, Minogue's media exposure was strictly controlled. Glamorous photos were churned out, but she rarely spoke to the press. Half- woman, half-cartoon, she was never a spokesperson for a cause.

All the more commendable then, that faced with a brush with mortality, she has handled it so brilliantly. Few stars go public about cancer -- especially one whose sexuality is so key to her image -- but from the moment she was diagnosed, Minogue has been totally open.

Throughout her treatment and mindful of her influence on other women, she has refused to endorse quack cures. Minogue has insisted that medical science should be at the heart, not just of her own treatment, but of that of any cancer sufferers who look to her as a role model.

In the past Minogue's freakishly perfect body has been used as a stick to beat normal women. But now for the first time, she's made herself part of the female constituency.

"I think of all of my past images," she said last week, "and none of them are like me. I'm just like any girl and I have the same anxieties and issues."

Although Kylie has always embraced the market ("I think to a degree it's fair to say that you're a manufactured product"), her capacity for reinvention is staggering. There have been many cutting-edge collaborators, including photographers Stephane Sedanoui, Wolfgang Tillmans and Pierre and Gilles, and the designer John Galliano, who described her as a "blend of Lolita and Barbarella."

Kylie Ann Minogue was born in Melbourne in 1968 to an Australian father and Welsh mother. Her younger sister, Dannii, is also a pop singer, her brother, Brendan, a news cameraman.

The Minogue sisters began their careers as children on Australian TV. At first Kylie was overshadowed by Dannii, but all that changed when she landed her role in the soap opera Neighbours in 1986 (she played Charlene opposite her then boyfriend Jason Donovan).

The singing career happened by accident. During a charity event with the cast, Minogue performed the Loco-Motion, which was later released and became a No. 1 single in Australia. After its success, the Svengali-like Stock, Aitken and Waterman invited Minogue to London to work with them.

Her album, Kylie, sold seven million copies. At the age of 21, a romance with INX bad boy Michael Hutchence led her to take control of her image for the first time. In her 1990 video Better the Devil You Know, she cavorts with a posse of black dancers, presenting a more sexually aware image.

Feeling stifled by Stock, Aitken and Waterman, Kylie broke away and signed for indie label DeConstruction, where she collaborated with the Manic Street Preachers. In 1995 she recorded the ballad, Where the Wild Roses Grow with Nick Cave, and recited her hit I Should Be So Lucky as part of Poetry Jam at London's Royal Albert Hall.

The critics loved it, but the fans did not warm to Indie Kylie. It wasn't until her comeback album with Parlophone in 2000, the Euro pop-inspired Fever, that she became cool again.

Spinning Around was her first British No. 1 in 10 years, and the video, with Minogue in gold hotpants, became a phenomenon. In 2000, Minogue sang at the Sydney Olympics, and Baz Luhrmann cast her as Absinthe, the Green Fairy, in Moulin Rouge! Can't Get You Out of My Head was Europe's top-selling single of 2001.

Hardened critics melted. Paul Morley analysed her ability to be at once superstar, businesswoman, seductress and blank canvas, while Julie Burchill celebrated her mix of glitter and working-class blue-collar stock. Reading their articles now, they display a childlike belief that nothing bad could ever happen to Kylie.

The pop princess released one more album of new material, Body Language, followed by a greatest hits album. Last May, everything stopped.

Pictured last week sporting a pixie crop, Kylie looks amazing. It will be fascinating to see how she styles herself for the new album, post-chemo.

And will the tabloids feel able to objectify that perfect body again? For 20 years, Kylie has had every day of her life mapped out. Now friends say she is enjoying a new spontaneity. She went partying in New York with Jake Shears of the Scissor Sisters and ended up nipping into a studio to record a song.

When she split up with model James Gooding, he described her as a "self-obsessed, virtually friendless control freak."

These may be the words of a love rat, but even Kylie admitted, on radio, that her schedule had led to her suffering a "small nervous breakdown."

During her treatment she surrounded herself with a loyal team. Her parents are involved in her career; her father is her financial adviser, her mother has joined her on each of her tours. And then there is Martinez.

But anyone desperate for a fairytale ending where Kylie resumes her peacock feathers and no one will mention cancer or pain again, will have to wait. Her illness, she says, has "been a long, hard road up to now."

It would be impertinent to suggest it has politicized her, but she intends to protest against the building of a nuclear power plant on a small island near Melbourne where she lived for part of last year.

The pop princess is growing up: more woman now than girl. "I'm not a great believer in looking back. I've always lived in the moment because I know more than most how things can suddenly drop from the sky and shake everything up."



Legal Notice: Contents copyright 1991-2005, The Hamilton Spectator. All rights reserved. Distribution, transmission or republication of any material from www.thespec.com is strictly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Hamilton Spectator. For directions on material reuse, website comments, questions or information send email to helliott@thespec.com.

Friday, June 23, 2006

FEDERAL LEGISLATIVE HISTORY RESEARCH:


A Practitioner's Guide to Compiling the Documents and Sifting for Legislative Intent
LLSDC

DETAILED OUTLINE with links to WRITTEN NARRATIVE
A. Introduction: What Federal Legislative Histories Are and How They Are Used
1. Compilation of related legislative docs that precede the enactment of a U.S. public law
2. Used by federal agencies, attorneys and courts to interpret a law
a. At the least tells you general purpose of a law or particular title in a law
b. Usually harder to decipher legislative intent in smaller provisions in a law
3. Controversy about relying on documents that are not enactments
a. Many law journal articles written debating the merits of leg. histories
b. Recent critics, textualists like Justice Scalia, have dampened use in courts
c. See bibliography of selected law journal articles

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Legislative history P.L. 107-204 - Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002




Senate Cmte. on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs has compiled a
history, which they've issued as 4 volumes of hearings, which you can
find on GPO Access.

Here are some URLs to pdf versions:

http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS35014

http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS35017

http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS35021

http://purl.access.gpo.gov/GPO/LPS35023


John D. Moore
Assistant Librarian for Public Services
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit
202-312-XXXX
Moore, John D. [Moorej@XXXX.GOV]

Monday, May 15, 2006

Historical hourly - intraday quotes




HQuote Pro downloads historical stocks quotes, futures, market indices, mutual funds quotes from Quote.com and Yahoo data servers. End-of-day, weekly, monthly and intraday quotes supported.

Fitch stocklist@fitchgroup.com 212-619-3800 or 800-332-1237 and
fitch ratings

DataBull

Briter Systems maintains a complete historical collection of the data we capture.
Every quote includes: name, symbol, date/time, current price, change value, change percent, previous close, open, volume, day min price, day max price, price to earnings, market cap, average volume, year min price, year max price, dividend value, earnings per share, dividend yield

Bi-Hourly Data: is collected every 30 minutes on roughly the 3000 largest companies which are traded on the US markets. Stocks are constantly added to the list and some companies are bought or delisted, so the list is ever changing. The list would correlate well to the Russell 3000.

End of Day Data: for All Listed Equities on NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ provides over 7,500+ equities


http://www.tickdata.com/ provider of valueadded historical intraday financial data, and Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) have unveiled ready-to-use trade and quote data for equities traded on TSX. This offering, the result of an agreement between Nexa and TSX Datalinx, the market data operation of TSX Group, is the newest addition to Tick Data's Tick Equity Database, a research-quality historical intraday equity database launched in April, 2004. The TSX product includes cleaned and filtered trade and quote data as of January 1, 2001, and was developed for quantitative investment professionals who require research-ready historical equity data to design, test, and validate trading strategies and order execution systems.

Tick Data combines software-based analytics and human analysis to ensure its data sets are truly ready-to-use. The proprietary, multi-step process includes the following key components:


$95/mo QCharts 30 days free
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NASDAQ Trader

eSignal Forums

Free feeds from LexisNexis


Mealey's Health care news headlines

General news

Legal headlines

Legal news via RSS

Public Corruption


New FBI website


Public corruption is one of the FBI’s top investigative priorities—behind only terrorism, espionage, and cyber crimes. Why? Because our democracy and national security depend on a healthy, efficient, and ethical government. Public corruption can impact everything from how well our borders are secured and our neighborhoods protected…to verdicts handed down in courts of law…to the quality of our roads and schools. Here you can find more information on how we investigate cases of corruption across all levels of government and details on our strong national program to address these crimes.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Internet Prospector
INTERNATIONAL REFERENCE


here

The surge in the global economy in recent years suggests a potential similar spike in the demand for international prospect research. Watch these pages as the Prospector explores foreign shores for the latest in international research sources.

DIG IT!
Locating Incorporation (and other) Records in Canada:
Stake your claim up north with the Prospector's exclusive guide.

Tax Assessor Database


here

Contributions to this project are strongly encouraged. Please feel free to email the following information whenever you call a tax assessor's office:


The name of the county, city or township office
The number by which you must multiply the assessed value to come up with the market value
Phone number of the office
Tax assessor's web address
You may also wish to access the Geographic Name Server at http://www.mit.edu:8001/geo to determine what county a particular city is in. The name server provides other information about cities as well. You can get there via telnet or through a www gateway. Updates to: c-pulawski@comcast.net

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Blog Law Squishy


Wednesday, April 26, 2006
ISSN 1535-1610

News

Copyrights
Blog Law Squishy,
But Copyright Law Clear, Panelists Say

SAN FRANCISCO--The worlds of blogging, journalism, and the law are colliding online and in the courts, with media and business advocates clearly disagreeing on free speech and trade secret theft.

The California Court of Appeals heard oral arguments April 20 on whether a trial court can order bloggers to reveal who leaked information to them about upcoming Apple Computer Inc. products. O'Grady v. Superior Court , Cal. Ct. App., No. H028579, oral arguments 4/20/06).

Kurt Opsahl, an attorney with the online civil rights group Electronic Frontier Foundation who argued on behalf of the individuals Apple sued last year, said bloggers enjoy the same First Amendment protections as journalists regardless of the medium or audience size.

"The size of the community has never been a basis for limiting the First Amendment rights, or the specialized nature of that community has been a basis for limiting those rights," Opsahl said. Consumers seek information vital for making choices, he said April 21 in a panel discussion at the Law Seminars International blog law conference.

Journalists all the time ask people for information that is unknown to the general public, said Terry Gross, an attorney with Gross & Belsky in San Francisco representing ThinkSecret.org which Apple sued for posting allegedly leaked information.

"The key really is, does the journalist do anything wrong in obtaining the information?" Gross said.

In another EFF case, the same California Court of Appeal that is hearing the Apple case held that the defendant, who posted DVD descrambling code on his Web site, was protected by the First Amendment. DVD Copy Control Association Inc. v. Bunner, Cal. Ct. App., No. H021153, 2/27/04. The court said that by the time the defendant posted the code, it was no longer a secret.

Marc Martin of Kirkpatrick & Lockhart Nicholson Graham, Washington, D.C., said the issue is whether information in the Apple case was rightfully obtained and whether the information is privileged.

While Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act grants broad immunity for service providers from liability for defamatory information, ISPs are not protected from intellectual property claims, according to Martin. Martin represents Apple in some issues but not in the case in the California appeals court.

At technology companies in general, Martin told BNA, all employees sign nondisclosure agreements, the firms operate secure facilities, have trade secret policies, and computers are behind firewalls, Martin said.

"If you're taking information that's proprietary from a company and one of your employees takes that treasured secret, walks out the door tucked in their sock, and runs over to the competitor, took it out of their sock, and gave it to them, that would be obvious. No one would contest that," Martin said.

"So what's the difference of that person instead of putting it in his sock and walking to the competitor, he instead went home, fires on line, and posted the content, and then all of a sudden it's available?" Martin said.

A California Superior Court, Santa Clara County, judge ruled in March 2005 that neither the First Amendment nor California's shield law for journalists bars discovery of the identities of persons who allegedly leaked Apple trade secrets to Apple-oriented bloggers. Apple Computer Inc. v. Doe, Cal. Super. Ct., No. 1-04-CV-032178, 3/11/05.

Blogger Protections

The California appeals court's decision is due within 90 days of oral argument. While not a federal case, the decision will be persuasive on judges in other states, Opsahl said.

"So long as the number of blog cases you can count on the fingers of two hands, I think this will be very important," said Bruce E.H. Johnson with Davis Wright Tremaine in Seattle.

The difference between a blogger and a journalist, said Johnson, is "a journalist has an editor."

Ensuring bloggers are included in state shield laws can be a fight, said Johnson. A failed Washington state shield law bill this past session was intended to be media neutral did not cover bloggers. "It's hard to create a privilege that applies to 13.4 million people," Johnson said.

The bill died in part because of opposition by business lobbyists and from the Society of Professional Journalists which wanted more extensive protection, Johnson said.

Copyrights and Blogging

A much clearer issue is who owns the copyright of material posted on a blog, said Raymond Nimmer, director of the Intellectual Property and Information Law Institute at the University of Houston Law Center.

"Copyright's automatic. Everything you're going to be dealing with, both stuff you write and gets written on your site and linked to, everything's copyrighted," Nimmer said at a session April 20. "Posting online is not waiver of copyright."

The professor gave the example of placing a book on the table and letting others look at it. "That doesn't give anybody the right to copy it. The simple fact of posting online isn't a waiver of copyright," Nimmer said.

Among the perils of employee blogging is ownership. When someone in-house is blogging, such as a law partner, Nimmer said an express contract is essential. "You really only get in trouble if you don't have a written contract," he said.

Putting aside the employment and work-for-hire issue, "if I write an entry on your site, either a comment or guest entry, I own the copyright to that unless I transfer. What you get is an implied license," Nimmer said.

By Joyce E. Cutler

____________________________
Contact customer relations at: customercare@bna.com or 1-800-372-1033
ISSN 1535-1610
Copyright © 2006, The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc.

Reproduction or redistribution, in whole or in part, and in any form,
without express written permission, is prohibited except as permitted by the BNA Copyright Policy,
http://www.bna.com/corp/index.html#V

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

There's much more shock and ore in the pipeline


Telegraph


By Tom Stevenson (Filed: 18/04/2006)

You may not realise it, but you are almost certainly taking a punt on one of the key investment questions of 2006: is the explosion in commodity prices the start of a sustainable super-cycle or a bubble waiting to burst?

Even if you have not joined the rush to ride the oil, gold and base metals bandwagon, your pension fund most likely has. Unprecedented amounts of retirement savings are flowing into the sector as money managers seek better returns and a diversification away from equities.

The Sainsbury's pension fund has bet 5pc of its £3.2bn fund on a continuing rise in prices. Hermes, manager of the UK's largest pension, recently launched a commodities fund into which it has invested £1bn of the £34bn it manages.

It is easy to see why investors should be attracted to the sector. Gold has broken through $600 an ounce for the first time since 1980, more than twice its level five years ago. The oil price has risen six-fold since 1999. Copper has tripled in six years while the prices of other base metals like nickel and zinc continue to hit new records.

With movements like these, it is no surprise that speculative investors have spotted an opportunity. Investment bank Macquarie estimates that $80bn was invested in commodity index funds in 2005, up from $55bn in 2004 and less than $30bn in 2003. Forecasts point to an inflow of up to $150bn a year by the end of 2007.

But this is about much more than mere speculation. All investment booms require a plausible story and with commodities it is an unusual combination of rising demand and constrained supply. The "super-cyclists" believe this will underpin a multi-year upswing.

Others caution that things are never "different this time". They argue that rising interest rates around the world, a slowdown in US consumption and growth in production will soon prick the bubble.

First, the bull case, most of which can be summarised by one word - China. The Asian dynamo's remarkable expansion in recent years means it dominates the growth in global demand for raw materials.

China makes 90pc of the world's toys, 50pc of its cameras and 70pc of photocopiers. It is estimated that 80pc of Wal-Mart's 6,000 suppliers are in China. The country has 130 cities with a population of more than 1m. Around 300m Chinese will move into new houses by 2020, all of which will require new plumbing, electricity and appliances. The mind-boggling statistics go on and on.

China is at a resource-intensive stage of its economic development. Post-industrial countries like those in Europe and North America use less base metal and one day China and India will too. But that day is a long way off.

The second part of the bull case is the supply side of the equation. In the past, commodity prices have followed a well-worn trajectory. As economic growth boosts demand, metal prices rise and producers respond by investing in new supply. Thanks to long lead times, this usually comes on stream just as interest rates rise to choke off inflation. Subdued demand and over-supply combine to slash prices.

This time really does look different in some key respects. Over the past couple of years producers have shied away from new developments, despite the surge in demand. Mining companies are more focused on returns than they were and they have seen share buybacks and acquisitions as lower risk ways of cashing in on rising prices.

After years of under-investment there is now a serious shortage of qualified workers and equipment, with Caterpillar, for example, warning that mining kit is sold out through 2007. Such is the shortage of big tyres, that machinery is routinely sold without them. There has also been a massive fall in metal discoveries over the past 25 years and, while there has been an uptick in exploration recently, it looks too little too late.

One last reason for thinking that commodity prices have further to go is the fact that in inflation-adjusted terms, they are not expensive. According to UBS, despite doubling in two years, base metal prices have only just broken through a 30-year down trend. On average they are less than half their real price in 1974. This is where veterans of the dotcom bubble get nervous. When investors start to talk of new paradigms and things being "different this time", it is usually the time to be most cautious.

Capital Economics argues that there has been a good reason for the real price declines over the past 50 years. Despite global consumption of steel and copper, for example, rising seven-fold over the period and aluminium nearly 30-fold, producers have always satisfied massively greater demand. There's plenty of ore in the ground.

It also believes that a shift in China away from investment towards consumption of goods and services will make its economy less commodity-intensive. This will compound an expected slow-down in the US economy and lower global growth next year, all of which should reduce the upward pressure on prices.

Finally, it says speculative demand, which has fuelled much of the recent boom could easily swing into reverse if prices start to fall.

In the short-run, prices do look frothy. But however plausible the bearish argument, the force is with commodities. Market trends continue long after prices have left fair value behind. So, super-cycle or bubble, don't count on this boom ending soon.

tom.stevenson@telegraph.co.uk


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