Thursday, November 17, 2011

Experience invariably trumps Theory


Democratic Lawmakers Urge Obama to Veto Gun Measure - Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com


Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com
48.
Terry Seale
Tennessee, ex-New Yorker
November 16th, 2011
11:24 am

1. After driving in NY, Washington DC, and Chicago, I realize why so many people in these places are against concealed carry and handgun ownership. They are so angry and frustrated with their living conditions that they know to their core that, were they to carry a gun, they would be a murderer several times over. They are not afraid of guns. They are afraid of themselves with a gun.

2. I have an autographed copy here of John Lott's book "More Guns Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws", 3d ed., University of Chicago Press, 2010. Using official government data sets, Lott proves that counties with higher gun populations suffer less crime than those with less.

Milton Friedman said, "Lott has done us all a service by his thorough, thoughtful, scholarly approach to a highly controversial issue." A researcher at Yale Law School, Lott has finally discredited the myths of anti-gunners. It is now well-settled and foolish to deny.

3. The Minutemen, the 1812 regiments, and the Civil War warriors all provided their own weapons when they became active duty militia. That's why they needed arms--Readiness. It's Redcoat General Gage that banned them. Sgt. York proved the point.

4. A driving license is a privilege granted by the police. Arms bearing is an inalienable Right granted by Divine Providence which, first the British King was obliged to recognize and protect, and then which our Constitution regarded as the most precious natural Right, second only to Free Speech. The police have nothing to do with that Right, except that their interference with it is forbidden as it is with Free Speech. Nothing needs to be proved, explained, or answered for that Right to obtain. "Don't Tread On Me." Remember?

5. The prosecution and persecution of Bernard Goetz caused many thousands to move out of New York. His civil rights were railroaded (no pun intended). But no matter how they hurt him, he came out a lot better than Kitty Genovese.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

From Shawn

link
The Currency War: Macro vs. Micro

Wed, Nov 16 2011, 14:56 GMT
by Shawn Beecher Market Traders Institute, Inc. (MTI)

When a trader enters any market they need to decide what role they will play within that market. I have been teaching traders to trade currency for over six years and what I have learned is this: a trader with no clear identity is a losing trader. This lack of identity is most detrimental when trying to analyze the market when conditions are similar to what they have been over the past few weeks.

If you are a short term trader, let me give you some advice—stop trading now! With the volatility and lack of clear trends that we are seeing on the 5-15 minute time frames, your technical analysis has probably been failing you more than it has been helping you. And, due to the lack of precision with most robots and systems these have also been failing miserably. If you are seeking more guidance on trading this market under the current conditions, I will try to make this easy for you to understand. Continue to sell the EURO, NZD, and CHF against the USD. Do your best to not let the short-term waves disrupt your trading strategy and accept the fact that if you are going to try to capture these larger moves, you will need to decrease your lot size so you can increase your stops to survive the volatility.

Here’s what’s been working for me:

1. Pay attention to the larger time frames (the small ones are full of Bull and Bear traps) and use them to place entry’s.

2. Look for at least three correlating technical reasons to enter a trade (I mean it, at least THREE).

3. Set your stops based on this larger time frame just above previous highs (if selling) and just below previous lows (if buying).

4. Plot the most current Fibonacci on the larger time frame and take into account the possible retracement, or extension, and make sure that your stops reflect this also.
5. Take your larger time frame and divide it by four (this is just a rule of thumb) and look for relevant areas of support and resistance, or even the short-term trend lines, and use this to determine the limits for your trades.

6. Finally, realize that when you capture PIPs, you take them to live and fight another day.

Some issues to watch for would be…, you will find that where a normal risk-to-reward of 1:2 (or even 1:3) is standard, in this market you should be happy getting 1:1.5 (and in extreme cases even 1:1). That means that the only way to make money in this market for the next couple weeks is if you are right more than you are wrong. And, if you are not confident, then stay out for a couple of weeks at least.

As an experienced trader and educator, I strongly recommend using this time to learn. So that when the market is once again ready for you, you will be ready for the market.

Monday, November 07, 2011

Penguin

A penguin is driving down the road on a trip away from home. Suddenly, he hears a big thump then the car stalls out with lot's of steam and smoke coming from the engine. Fortunately there is a service station right there and he was able to coast into the station.

He explained to the mechanic that he was far from home and pleaded with the mechanic to fix it right away.

The mechanic agreed and told the penguin that he needed about a half hour and suggested the penguin go across the street to a lunchroom.

The penguin went over there, had a nice lunch, got himself an ice cream cone, and went back to the station.

As the mechanic looked up and saw him, he said,"It looks like you blew a seal."

The penguin said quickly, "Oh, no, no, that's just some ice cream."